The World in 2025: 8 Predictions for the Next 10 Years
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In 2025, in accordance with Moore's Law, we'll see an acceleration in the rate of change as we move closer to a world of true abundance. Here are eight areas where we'll see extraordinary transformation in the next decade:
根据摩尔定律，到 2025 年，随着我们越来越接近真正丰富的世界，我们将看到变化速度的加快。以下是未来十年我们将看到非凡转型的八个领域：
1. A $1,000 Human Brain1. 一个价值 1,000 美元的人脑¶
In 2025, $1,000 should buy you a computer able to calculate at 10^16 cycles per second (10,000 trillion cycles per second), the equivalent processing speed of the human brain.
到 2025 年，1,000 美元应该可以买到一台能够以每秒 10^16 个周期（每秒 10,000 万亿个周期）计算的计算机，相当于人脑的处理速度。
2. A Trillion-Sensor Economy2. 万亿传感器经济¶
The Internet of Everything describes the networked connections between devices, people, processes and data. By 2025, the IoE will exceed 100 billion connected devices, each with a dozen or more sensors collecting data. This will lead to a trillion-sensor economy driving a data revolution beyond our imagination. Cisco's recent report estimates the IoE will generate $19 trillion of newly created value.
万物互联描述了设备、人员、流程和数据之间的网络连接。到 2025 年，万物互联设备将超过 1000 亿台，每台设备都有十几个或更多传感器收集数据。这将导致一个拥有万亿传感器的经济，推动一场超乎我们想象的数据革命。思科最近的报告估计，万物互联将产生 19 万亿美元的新创造价值。
3. Perfect Knowledge 3. 完美的知识¶
We're heading towards a world of perfect knowledge. With a trillion sensors gathering data everywhere (autonomous cars, satellite systems, drones, wearables, cameras), you'll be able to know anything you want, anytime, anywhere, and query that data for answers and insights.
我们正在走向一个拥有完美知识的世界。借助无处不在的万亿个传感器（自动驾驶汽车、卫星系统、无人机、可穿戴设备、相机），您将能够随时随地了解任何您想要的信息，并查询这些数据以获得答案和见解。
4. 8 Billion Hyper-Connected People4. 80 亿超级连接者¶
Facebook (Internet.org), SpaceX, Google (Project Loon), Qualcomm and Virgin (OneWeb) are planning to provide global connectivity to every human on Earth at speeds exceeding one megabit per second.
Facebook （Internet.org）、SpaceX、谷歌 （Project Loon）、高通和维珍 （OneWeb） 正计划以超过每秒 1 兆比特的速度为地球上的每个人提供全球连接。
We will grow from three to eight billion connected humans, adding five billion new consumers into the global economy. They represent tens of trillions of new dollars flowing into the global economy. And they are not coming online like we did 20 years ago with a 9600 modem on AOL. They're coming online with a 1 Mbps connection and access to the world's information on Google, cloud 3D printing, Amazon Web Services, artificial intelligence with Watson, crowdfunding, crowdsourcing, and more.
我们将从 30 亿联网人口增长到 80 亿，为全球经济增加 50 亿新消费者。它们代表着数十万亿新资金流入全球经济。而且它们不像我们 20 年前在 AOL 上使用 9600 调制解调器那样上线。他们将通过 1 Mbps 连接上线，并可以访问 Google、云 3D 打印、Amazon Web Services、Watson 人工智能、众筹、众包等全球信息。
5. Disruption of Healthcare5. 医疗保健的中断¶
Existing healthcare institutions will be crushed as new business models with better and more efficient care emerge. Thousands of startups, as well as today's data giants (Google, Apple, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, etc.) will all enter this lucrative $3.8 trillion healthcare industry with new business models that dematerialize, demonetize and democratize today's bureaucratic and inefficient system.
随着具有更好、更高效护理的新商业模式的出现，现有的医疗保健机构将被压垮。数以千计的初创公司以及当今的数据巨头（谷歌、苹果、Microsoft、SAP、IBM 等）都将进入这个利润丰厚的 3.8 万亿美元医疗保健行业，采用新的商业模式，使当今的官僚主义和低效系统非物质化、去货币化和民主化。
Biometric sensing (wearables) and AI will make each of us the CEOs of our own health. Large-scale genomic sequencing and machine learning will allow us to understand the root cause of cancer, heart disease and neurodegenerative disease and what to do about it. Robotic surgeons can carry out an autonomous surgical procedure perfectly (every time) for pennies on the dollar. Each of us will be able to regrow a heart, liver, lung or kidney when we need it, instead of waiting for the donor to die.
生物识别传感（可穿戴设备）和 AI 将使我们每个人都成为自己健康的 CEO。大规模基因组测序和机器学习将使我们能够了解癌症、心脏病和神经退行性疾病的根本原因以及如何应对。机器人外科医生可以完美地（每次）以几分钱的价格执行自主外科手术。我们每个人都将能够在需要时再生心脏、肝脏、肺或肾脏，而不是等待捐赠者死亡。
6. Augmented and Virtual Reality6. 增强现实和虚拟现实¶
Billions of dollars invested by Facebook (Oculus), Google (Magic Leap), Microsoft (Hololens), Sony, Qualcomm, HTC and others will lead to a new generation of displays and user interfaces.
Facebook （Oculus）、谷歌 （Magic Leap）、Microsoft （Hololens）、索尼、高通、HTC 等公司投资数十亿美元，将带来新一代显示器和用户界面。
The screen as we know it — on your phone, your computer and your TV — will disappear and be replaced by eyewear. Not the geeky Google Glass, but stylish equivalents to what the well-dressed fashionistas are wearing today. The result will be a massive disruption in a number of industries ranging from consumer retail, to real estate, education, travel, entertainment, and the fundamental ways we operate as humans.
我们所知道的屏幕——在您的手机、电脑和电视上——将消失并被眼镜所取代。不是极客的 Google Glass，而是与当今穿着考究的时尚达人所穿的时尚等价物。其结果将对许多行业造成巨大颠覆，从消费零售到房地产、教育、旅行、娱乐以及我们作为人类的基本运作方式。
7. Early Days of JARVIS7. 贾维斯的早期¶
Artificial intelligence research will make strides in the next decade. If you think Siri is useful now, the next decade's generation of Siri will be much more like JARVIS from Iron Man, with expanded capabilities to understand and answer. Companies like IBM Watson, DeepMind and Vicarious continue to hunker down and develop next-generation AI systems. In a decade, it will be normal for you to give your AI access to listen to all of your conversations, read your emails and scan your biometric data because the upside and convenience will be so immense.
人工智能研究将在未来十年取得长足进步。如果您认为 Siri 现在很有用，那么未来十年的 Siri 将更像钢铁侠中的 JARVIS，具有扩展的理解和回答能力。IBM Watson、DeepMind 和 Vicarious 等公司继续潜伏并开发下一代 AI 系统。十年后，您通常会让您的 AI 访问您的所有对话、阅读您的电子邮件和扫描您的生物识别数据，因为其好处和便利性将是巨大的。
8. Blockchain 8. 区块链¶
If you haven't heard of the blockchain, I highly recommend you read up on it. You might have heard of bitcoin, which is the decentralized (global), democratized, highly secure cryptocurrency based on the blockchain. But the real innovation is the blockchain itself, a protocol that allows for secure, direct (without a middleman), digital transfers of value and assets (think money, contracts, stocks, IP). Investors like Marc Andreesen have poured tens of millions into the development and believe this is as important of an opportunity as the creation of the Internet itself.
如果您还没有听说过 区块链 ，我强烈建议您阅读它。您可能听说过比特币，它是基于区块链的去中心化（全球）、民主化、高度安全的加密货币。但 真正的创新是区块链本身 ，这是一种协议，允许安全、直接（无需中间人）的价值和资产（想想金钱、合同、股票、IP）的数字转移。像 Marc Andreesen 这样的投资者已经为开发投入了数千万美元，他们相信这是一个与创建互联网本身一样重要的机会。
Bottom Line: We Live in the Most Exciting Time Ever一句话：我们生活在有史以来最激动人心的时代¶
We are living toward incredible times where the only constant is change, and the rate of change is increasing.
我们生活在一个令人难以置信的时代，唯一不变的是变化，而且变化的速度正在增加。
Join Me 加入我¶
Abundance Digital Online Community:I’ve created a digital/online community of bold, abundance-minded entrepreneurs called Abundance Digital.
Abundance Digital 在线社区： 我创建了一个由大胆、富有意识的企业家组成的数字/在线社区，名为 Abundance Digital。
Abundance Digital is my ‘onramp’ for exponential entrepreneurs — those who want to get involved and play at a higher level. Click here to learn more.
Abundance Digital 是我为指数级企业家提供的“入口”——那些想要参与并在更高水平上发挥作用的人。 单击此处了解更多信息 。
Image Credit: Shutterstock.com
图片来源： Shutterstock.com
Diamandis is the founder and executive chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, which leads the world in designing and operating large-scale incentive competitions. He is also the executive founder and director of Singularity University, a global learning and innovation community using exponential technologies to tackle the world’s biggest challenges and build a better future for all. As an entrepreneur, Diamandis has started over 20 companies in the areas of longevity, space, venture capital, and education. He is also co-founder of BOLD Capital Partners, a venture fund with $250M investing in exponential technologies. Diamandis is a New York Times Bestselling author of two books: Abundance and BOLD. He earned degrees in molecular genetics and aerospace engineering from MIT and holds an MD from Harvard Medical School. Peter’s favorite saying is “the best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.”
Diamandis 是 XPRIZE 基金会的创始人兼执行主席，该基金会在设计和运营大型奖励竞赛方面处于世界领先地位。他还是奇点大学的执行创始人和董事，这是一个全球学习和创新社区，使用指数技术来应对世界上最大的挑战，为所有人创造更美好的未来。作为一名企业家，Diamandis 在长寿、太空、风险投资和教育领域创办了 20 多家公司。他还是 BOLD Capital Partners 的联合创始人，这是一家风险基金，拥有 $250M 投资于指数级技术。Diamandis 是《纽约时报》畅销书作者，著有两本书：《Abundance》和《BOLD》。他拥有麻省理工学院的分子遗传学和航空航天工程学位，并拥有哈佛医学院的医学博士学位。Peter 最喜欢的一句话是“预测未来的最好方法是自己创造它。
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